Iran and North Korea do not have—and are unlikely to develop—capabilities to match those of the United States and its regional allies. There has been a remarkable acceleration with the use of guided weapons since Operation Desert Storm, where unguided dumb bombs were the norm. Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele that includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms. This brief then aggregates these trends to paint a holistic picture of the future of warfare—the potential U.S. allies and enemies, where conflicts will occur, what they might look like, how the United States will wage them, and when and why the United States might go to war in the first place. It should be noted that future warfare including the trends in the technological development of conven-tional branches and services and even the blueprints in the stage of planning are expected to be dominated by the fight against terrorism. “In considera… With U.S. conventional forces reduced in size, China—and, to a lesser extent, Russia—will narrow the qualitative gap. Across their fleet, they utilise two calibres, 125mm for tanks and 30mm for IFVs. Garrett Sinclair, 347th Operations Support Squadron chief of weapons and tactics, analyzes a computer during exercise FT 19-04, April 18, 2019, at Moody Air Force Base, Ga. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. Getting to Know Military Caregivers and Their Needs, Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change, Improving Psychological Wellbeing and Work Outcomes in the UK, The Future of Warfare in 2030: Project Overview and Conclusions, Geopolitical Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force, Military Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force, Global Economic Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force, Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force, Restraint and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force, Japan, India, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines (to a lesser extent) versus China, Potentially, countries in Russia's near abroad, Continuity in NATO allies that feel threatened by Russia, Varies based on country and type of crisis, with Eastern Europe often showing the most will to oppose Russia, Potentially less contribution from traditional Western European allies, Increasing near-peer conventional modernization and professionalism, China and/or Russia versus United States and select allies or partners, Potential for new alliances in Asia among strong states that feel threatened by China; continuity in NATO allies that feel threatened by Russia, Increasing public concern for civilian casualties, Greater deterrence of liberal and democratic states; autocracies often less affected, Potentially lower participation by U.S. partners, Emboldened nonstate actors and autocracies; liberal-democratic states more deterred, Potentially less contribution from traditional Western allies, Terrorism, weak states, and proxy wars in Islamic world, Weakening of state's monopoly on violence, Space an increasingly contested environment, Erosion of norms and treaties constraining tactical nuclear weapons use, Widespread distribution of imagery of military operations, Proliferation of commercial space capabilities, Relatively declining U.S. and allied economic might. U.S. quantitative and qualitative military advantages are diminishing, and the United States will have increasing difficulty controlling strategic outcomes. Also available in print form. Restraints and geography trends, the increasing salience of lawfare, the wider distribution of imagery of military operations, and the growing urbanization of the global population all could affect warfare by 2030. The report identifies six trends that will shape who and where the United States is most likely to fight in the future, how those wars will be conducted, and why they will occur. Nuclear trends present a cleaner, if less rosy, picture of the future. Where will the next war occur? None of these problems appear likely to be resolved anytime soon and will likely shape the contours of conflict in the years to come. China is becoming more militarily formidable and geopolitically assertive; second-tier adversaries are investing in anti-access, area denial capabilities; excessive heat, rising sea levels, and extreme weather make it harder to operate in certain areas of the world. how the USA, currently the only superpower of the world, sees the war of the future. According to Gen. Milley, “we’re going to have to, as we move forward in the next 10 years, optimize the army for urban warfare.” Battles in open terrain will increasingly be a thing of the past, as vast urbanization in developing countries is driving the majority of the world’s population into cities. The Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS.edu) is the largest public policy Ph.D. program in the nation and the only program based at an independent public policy research organization—the RAND Corporation. 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