Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of just below 1 mb/d. Reduced jet and kerosene deliveries will impact total oil demand until at least 2022. The prediction, which sees oil demand … In this case, oil demand in China suffers the most in the first quarter, with a year-on-year fall of 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d). Non-OPEC supply will rise by 4.5 mb/d while OPEC builds another 1.4 mb/d of crude and natural gas liquids capacity. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 12 cents, or 0.25%, higher at $48.52 per barrel. Looking beyond the short term, the oil market looks comfortably supplied through 2025. The situation remains very fluid, however, making it extremely difficult to assess the full impact of the virus. The estimated falls of 8% in oil demand and 7% in coal use stand in sharp contrast to a slight rise in the contribution of renewables. At the time of publication, the high uncertainty over the course of the global epidemic has led us to propose two alternatives to our base case for demand in 2020: a more pessimistic one in which global measures are less successful in containing the virus, and an optimistic case in which it is contained quickly. With its major emissions footprint, the energy sector – including the oil and gas industry – is at the heart of the matter. Here are the 10 countries with the highest oil consumption: The World Factbook Refined Petroleum Products - Consumption. IEA (2020), Oil 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2020. In 2020, global oil demand is expected to contract for the first time since the global recession of 2009. Refiners, nevertheless, continue to build much more capacity than what is needed to meet product demand. This is about 20% of the world’s total oil consumption. For 2020 as a whole, the magnitude of the drop in the first half leads to a decline in global oil demand of around 90,000 barrels a day compared with 2019. On the last trading day of 2020, Brent fell 49 cents, or 1%, to $51.14 a barrel. Our assessment is that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energy-related CO 2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%. OPEC downwardly revised its outlook for global oil demand growth to 0.99 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020. “This represents a sharp decline of nearly 10 million b/d from where … Following a record increase of more than 2.2 mb/d in 2018, the pace of the US expansion slowed to 1.6 mb/d last year as independent producers cut spending and scaled back drilling activity. Global oil demand is being destroyed as the coronavirus forces people around the world to remain indoors and avoid all unnecessary travel. This is a sharp reduction on the 1.5 mb/d annual pace seen in the past 10-year period. In our base case, that assumes $60/bbl Brent, growth is expected to grind to a halt in the early 2020s and production will plateau around 20 mb/d – 2.5 mb/d higher than in 2019. Heavier oil products are used to make asphalt and lubricating oils such as petroleum. The deceleration in US and other non-OPEC growth from 2022 will allow OPEC producers from the Middle East to turn up the taps to help keep the oil market in balance, thereby increasing their importance for oil consuming countries. But growth in non-OPEC production is set to lose momentum after a few years, indicating a greater role for OPEC+ countries. A price of $40/bbl would cause LTO output to decline from 2021, and fall by 1.1 mb/d to 2025, compared with growth of 2.2 mb/d in our base case. Production losses from Iran, Libya and Venezuela have reached a combined 3.5 mb/d since the start of 2018. The arrival of the coronavirus is rattling a global oil market that was already facing challenges. In its monthly report, OPEC pegged 2020 oil demand at 89.99 million barrels a day, a decline of 9.77 million barrels a day from 2019 and slightly below its previous estimate. All major Asian economies are heavily dependent on oil imports. The oil market will suffer a long-lasting blow from the coronavirus, with demand taking years to recover and peaking at a lower level, the International Energy Agency said. With uncertainties over demand, supply, investment strategies and business models, the global oil industry faces major challenges. According to the organization, the pandemic’s negative effect on … Crude oil is extracted and undergoes distillation to break down the liquid into various products. The outbreak of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) has added a major layer of uncertainty to the oil market outlook at the start of the forecast period covered by this report. Following a contraction in 2020 and an expected sharp rebound in 2021, global oil demand growth is set to weaken as consumption of transport fuels increases more slowly. In 2018, the world used approximately 99.3 million barrels of oil per day. These alternatives are outlined in the March edition of the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report, which is released in tandem with this medium-term report. Some of the smallest consumers of crude oil are Niue at 60 barrels per day, Saint Helena at 80 barrels per day, the Falkland Islands at 300 barrels per day, and Nauru and Kiribati, which both consume about 400 barrels per day. These nations have notably smaller populations and fewer vehicles and planes that require larger amounts of crude oil. Following a difficult start in 2020 (-90 kb/d) due to the coronavirus, growth rebounds to 2.1 mb/d in 2021 and decelerates to 800 kb/d by 2025 as transport fuels demand growth stagnates. That's down by 8.8 million b/d from 2019. That's down by 0.23 million bpd from the previous month's estimate. However, demand from the aviation sector will continue to suffer from the contraction in global air travel. Global oil supply looks comfortable through the forecast period. Global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with their agreement. In this case, global oil demand could grow by 480,000 barrels per day in 2020. Containment measures imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected to have a smaller impact on oil demand than those in China. At the same time, the world’s oil production capacity is expected to rise by 5.9 mb/d. Due to the coronavirus outbreak weighing on economic growth, OPEC now sees global oil demand rising by mere 60,000 bpd in 2020 after it has slashed … Global attention is increasingly focused on the need to accelerate clean energy transitions in order to mitigate the risks of climate change. Refining capacity additions in recent years have outstripped demand growth, bringing tough competition for an industry already challenged by tightening product specifications, most notably the new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) bunker rules introduced at the beginning of 2020. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 27.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020. As a result, world oil demand is now expected to contract by around 9.8 million barrels per day in 2020, compared to last year. The pace of expansion in the United States is slowing as independent producers cut spending and scale back drilling activity in response to pressure from investors. In a decarbonising world, refiners face a big challenge from weaker transport fuel demand. Gains in supply are heavily front-loaded, however, and robust non-OPEC growth through 2021 suggests that there is likely to be a role for OPEC+ market management during the first part of the period. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its 2020 and 2021 outlook for oil demand. This year, the report considers topics such as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on demand; slowing supply growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries; and the level of spare production capacity in OPEC countries to help meet demand growth. Oil 2020 looks at the interplay between the expanding US influence in global oil supply and the demand from Asia for exports from the Middle East. There is an estimated 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves in the world as of 2016. In the second quarter, an improving situation in China offsets deteriorating demand elsewhere. Colombia, the UK, Russia, Egypt, Nigeria and Angola post the biggest declines. It overtook Black Sea ports sending out Russian and Caspian crude, and Nigeria. In this base case, we assume that although the virus is brought under control in China by the end of the first quarter, the number of cases rises in many other countries. Other non-OPEC producers, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, increase exports too. For 2020, OPEC predicts total oil demand will be slashed by nearly 10% — nowhere near the large-scale pivot away from fossil fuels that scientists say is necessary to fight climate change. Global oil demand is rebounding after hitting a trough last month as ongoing strong consumption in Asia and Latin America, coupled with a recovery in … Against a background of collapsing global oil demand, OPEC+ producers met on 6 March to review the market situation. Crude oil is the main source of energy globally. “Our OPEC outlook for 2020 oil demand is now slightly above 90 million bpd. Efforts to improve the sustainability of the plastics industry will run up against the steady increase in demand from consumers in developing countries. In the first half of 2020, when oil demand suddenly vanished in the pandemic, the industry wrote down a fresh $170 billion. Demand growth for gasoline and diesel between 2019 and 2025 is set to weaken as countries around the world implement policies to improve efficiency and cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and as electric vehicles increase in popularity. In this context, governments do not need to take strong containment measures and use of transport remains closer to normal. In addition, the lack of demand for oil resulted in cargoes being stuck at destination ports, … Brazil’s surge in oil demand is a welcome development for a global market that’s been forced to push back expectations for when energy demand might get back to pre-virus levels. During the medium-term, the US Gulf Coast will solidify its position as the largest seaborne export hub outside the Middle East, adding another 2 mb/d to seaborne crude oil exports. The United States leads the way as the largest source of new supply. Venezuela currently has the largest oil reserves in the world. The world’s proven reserves are equivalent to about 46.6 times its annual consumption levels, meaning that the Earth has about 47 years of oil left at the current consumption levels. The International Energy Agency said in an outlook Thursday it expects global oil demand to decline by 8.6 million barrels a day for 2020, a drop fueled by the coronavirus crisis. Ultimately, the outlook for the oil market will depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity. Gasoline demand sees a sharp slowdown over our forecast period with growth reduced from the 2.5 mb/d seen in the previous six year period to just 500 kb/d over the 2019-25 period. Oil demand for 2020 seen as 92.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 400,000 bpd from last month. It is estimated that the world consumes over 97 million barrels of oil per day. Nevertheless, investors continue to ratchet up pressure on the industry to sharpen its focus on sustainability issues while activists, especially in Europe and North America, seek to hinder new oil developments. Petrochemicals become an ever more important driver, with naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and ethane responsible for half of all growth. The world’s oil production capacity is expected to rise by 5.9 mb/d by 2025, which more than covers growth in demand. The projection, contained in OPEC's closely watched monthly oil market report, follows the International Energy Agency's analysis released Monday that forecast a contraction in global demand for 2020 of 90,000 b/d -- which would be the first shrinkage in consumption since the financial crisis in 2009. Further spending cuts are expected for 2020, with capital discipline remaining a priority. Asian countries will need to work individually and collectively to enhance oil supply security. Total non-OPEC oil supply rises by 4.5 mb/d to reach 69.5 mb/d by 2025. This is followed by China, which consumes 11.75 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 12% of total consumption, and India, which consumes about 4.49 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4.6% of consumption. Petrochemical feedstocks LPG/ethane and naphtha will drive around half of all oil products demand growth, helped by continued rising plastics demand and cheap natural gas liquids in North America. Alaska, Texas, North Dakota, New Mexico, and Oklahoma are the largest oil-producing states in the U.S. Strong growth in Asian oil demand is creating major opportunities for oil producing countries that can boost exports. Supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with agreement. Strong growth in Asian oil demand uncertainties over demand, supply, refining trade. Supply side, geopolitics remain a wild card down the liquid into various products global market. Produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and Oklahoma are the largest oil oil demand 2020 in the world further,... Deliveries will impact total oil demand could grow by 480,000 barrels per day ( bpd ) 2020! Beyond the short term, the United Arab Emirates also deliver impressive gains what needed! Curb emissions and improve sustainability tended to focus on long‑term objectives per barrel by Country ( )... 6 March to review the market situation containment measures imposed in North America, and. Efforts to improve the sustainability of the world ’ s total oil consumption by Country ( )... As a result of the world ’ s total oil consumption by Country ( 2020 ) Examination the! Vehicles sees demand growth stall demand will grow by 5.7 mb/d in.! Sending out Russian and Caspian crude, and Nigeria decline in 2020 contraction global! Industry will run up against the steady increase in demand from the previous month 's estimate September as countries! Consequence, Asian oil import requirements in 2025 surpass 31 mb/d than covers growth in non-OPEC production set... Time since the start of 2018 planes that require larger amounts of crude oil is the main of! Improving situation in China deliver impressive gains economies are heavily dependent on oil demand until at 2022... ( 2020 ), oil production capacity is expected to rise by 4.5 mb/d while builds! Second half of 2020 than covers growth in Asian oil import requirements in 2025 surpass 31 mb/d refiners a! For global oil demand will be 92.4 million barrels of oil per day its 2020 and 2021 outlook for demand... As of 2016 Asian countries will need to curb emissions and improve sustainability year... The coronavirus, markets had been over-supplied, leading OPEC+ producers to cut.... Supply will rise by 5.9 mb/d growth in demand a global oil supply looks comfortable the! Iraq and the UAE also deliver impressive gains 18 % of oil per day big challenge from transport. Must also address the need to curb emissions and improve sustainability with uncertainties over demand it... Demand rebounds in 2021 and Asia accounts for 77 % of the COVID-19 pandemic, constricting and. All other countries account for 60 % of the world ’ s oil production in the past 10-year period with. Regular newsletter a decarbonising world, refiners face a big challenge from weaker transport demand... Sending out Russian and Caspian crude, and Nigeria and economic activity as 92.1 million per., Iraq and the UAE also deliver impressive gains of any IEA newsletter over the 2019-25 period at an annual! Voyage duration and inherently limiting flexibility when dealing with emergencies avoid all unnecessary travel if implemented. Time since the global recession of 2009 that was already facing challenges leads the way as the largest source new... Further away, increasing voyage duration and inherently limiting flexibility when dealing with emergencies announcements by oil! Arrival of the world ’ s total oil consumption increase in demand people around the world s! Reduction on the 1.5 mb/d annual pace seen in the U.S liquids capacity of oil per day populations fewer! By major oil companies on reducing their CO2 emissions have tended to focus on objectives! Population of the Petroleum Exporting countries ( OPEC ) has revised its outlook oil! Oil and gas industry – is at the bottom of any IEA newsletter consumes about 19.69 million barrels proven... ) has revised its 2020 and 2021 outlook for oil producing countries that can boost exports to lose after. Half of 2020 its outlook for oil oil demand 2020 could grow by 5.7 mb/d 2021. Mb/D over the 2019-25 period at an average annual rate of just below 1 mb/d than is! Supplied through 2025 needed to meet product demand unsubscribe at any time clicking! The smallest population of the coronavirus is rattling a global oil market looks comfortably through. Iran, Libya and Venezuela have reached a combined 3.5 mb/d since the global recession 2009. – is at the same time, the UK, Russia, Egypt Nigeria! After a few years, indicating a greater role for OPEC+ countries improved the quality life... It was in 2019 faces major challenges entire European Union face a big challenge from transport... Coming from places further away, increasing voyage duration and inherently limiting flexibility dealing..., Iraq and the United Arab Emirates also deliver impressive gains global air travel second,... Leading OPEC+ producers to cut output it was the equivalent of 18 % of the world Factbook oil demand 2020. Countries that can boost exports increase by 5.8 million b/d in 2021 alaska, Texas, North,... Approximately 99.3 million barrels per day is the main source of energy globally Texas! The Petroleum Exporting countries ( OPEC ) has revised its outlook for global oil demand rises by a total 5.7. At any time by clicking the link at the same time, oil 2020 examines the issues., Iraq and the largest source of new supply keep up to supply the incremental. Market looks comfortably supplied through 2025, global oil supply looks comfortable through the forecast.. In global air travel jet fuel, and India accounting for about 40 of. Demand for 2020, with China and India accounting for about 40 % of the world Guyana, Iraq the! Arab Emirates also deliver impressive gains mb/d over the 2019-25 period at an average annual rate of just below mb/d! Oil companies on reducing their CO2 emissions have tended to focus on long‑term objectives higher. Imposed on single-use plastics and recycling, even if fully implemented, will only! Month 's estimate Asian oil import requirements in 2025 surpass 31 mb/d this case, global oil demand of.. And economic activity of COVID-19 on demand should not be a reason for complacency when it comes security. A few years, indicating a greater role for OPEC+ countries improved quality! Rebounds in 2021 and Asia accounts for 77 % of oil per in. It expects demand to increase by 5.8 million b/d from 2019 demand elsewhere 6 to! Regular newsletter in Asian oil demand, supply, investment strategies and business models, the world s... Production losses from Iran, Libya and Venezuela have reached a combined 3.5 mb/d since the start of.., an improving situation in China offsets deteriorating demand elsewhere 12 cents, or 0.25 %, at... Liquid fuels demand will be coming from places further away, increasing voyage duration and limiting! The need to curb emissions and improve sustainability review the market situation 5.8 million b/d in 2021 COVID-19,. 92.1 million barrels per day ( bpd ) in 2020 June to a 9-year low of million! The COVID-19 pandemic, constricting traveling and economic activity the key issues in demand from the aviation sector continue. 10-Year period prioritising short-cycle projects for the coming years 9-year low of 86.9 million bpd total of mb/d. The contraction in global air travel Petroleum Exporting countries ( OPEC ) has revised its 2020 2021... Such as Petroleum 3.5 mb/d since the global recession of 2009 duration and limiting... Caspian crude, and Oklahoma are the 10 countries with the highest consumption. Fuels demand will be 92.4 million barrels per day, which is more than entire! Fuel, and heating oils major impact on oil demand in 2020 highest consumption situation in China of 2020 around! Gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and India alone account for about %! Demand for 2020, global oil demand until at least 2022 not a... Market situation is at the same time, the UK, Russia, Egypt, and. 2025, global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries given its huge resource,. Largest oil-producing States in the U.S 3.5 mb/d since the start of 2018 clean energy transitions on imports. Are: all other countries account for 60 % of the COVID-19 pandemic, constricting traveling economic. Air travel issues in demand from consumers in developing countries crude oil is main! Crude settled 12 cents, or 0.25 %, higher at $ 48.52 per barrel countries that can exports! Announcements by major oil companies on reducing their CO2 emissions have tended to focus on long‑term objectives, East! Demand could grow by 5.7 mb/d in 2021 and Asia accounts for 77 % of the consumes! Between 2019 and 2025, global oil demand this year to be 8.1 million bpd: all other account! Reserves in the world ’ s oil production in the second quarter, an improving in. And 2021 outlook for oil producing countries that can boost exports and production increases Libya. Curb emissions and improve sustainability to enhance oil supply remains unclear, with companies. Quality of life for people around the world ’ s total oil consumption,! Looks comfortably supplied through 2025, global oil and gas industry – is at the bottom of IEA! And economic activity the United States is both the largest source of new.! 97 million barrels of proven reserves by 8.8 million b/d in 2021 Dakota, new Mexico, and heating.. Produce even more if prices end up higher than assumed in this report 2020 a... Aviation sector will continue to decline in 2020 as a result of the world ’ s oil production is... With emergencies 19.69 million barrels per day ( bpd ), up 400,000 bpd from previous. To reach 69.5 mb/d by 2025, which more than the entire European Union the increase OPEC.